Analysis on the North Korean issue
1. Eventually, cooperation among the U.S., Russia and China would bring about the renunciation of nuclear development by North Korea in exchange for both the assurance of Kim’s regime and economic aid.
2. As long as President Trump took up the abduction issue probably strategically, Japan has to assume the responsibility to finance North Korea chiefly besides South Korea and China.
3. Under the current smart sanctions, Pyongyang can sustain its regime.
4. North Korea is satisfied by the guarantee of Kim’s individual dynasty.
5. Opening up the country with an assured regime would attract both investment in its natural resources development and diligent workforce. This situation is a win-win one to all concerned parties.
6. Military-relat6ed stocks are must-buy (石川製作所、川崎重工業、三菱重工業、IHI、日本製鋼所、新明和工業) because both the U.S. and Pyongyang would continue provocations in the short term almost close to the threshold. Counter-Cyber-security stocks are must-buy (デジタルアーツ、テリロジー、FFRI、ラック、アズジェント) Stocks of trading firms to develop infrastructure and to invest in natural resources are must-buy the issue is likely to be resolved peacefully in the end.
1. Both sides want to avoid the direct confrontation although they continue provocations as a performance.
2. For the U.S. it is inevitable to receive retaliation against Seoul, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Guam if Trump carries out attacks. In this case, surrounding countries must tackle with massive outflow of refugees. America’s unilateral and frivolous actions have harmed the dignity of Russia and China that have North Korea in their home territory.
3. China does not want a united Korea with U.S. army bordering it.
4. Russia is also a target of economic sanctions due to the Ukraine issue. At the same time, China now has a trade dispute with the U.S. Accordingly, international system is not cooperative, but divided. In this situation, North Korea does not have feel a sense of political isolation, which is vital for economic teeth to work. Russia tries to retrieve international prestige and to assuage international pressure by becoming a benign mediator of this issue like in the Middle East. As relatively a small economy, Russia must be diplomatic by making the most of its minimum investment to produce the maximum fruit.
5. Japan, China and South Korea will have to shoulder the financial burden in the case of refugee crisis as a result of the collapse of Kim regime, so, neither parties don’t want the overthrow of the leader, Kim.
6. Paradoxically, with the maturity of human rights norm, economic damage is mitigated by international humanitarian aid, which sustain the Kim’s dynasty.
7. For both sides, war is undesirable considering the series of ongoing informal talks in Nordic countries.
8. I hope it is a joke, but Tokyo or Seoul would be directly attacked accidentally even if Pyongyang targets Sea of Japan in light of the obsolete technology after the return of Russian experts.
9. Them, why could the Trump administration attack Iraq and Syria? First, there were no critical allies around these countries to the U.S. Second, they violated internationally-respected norms and it enhanced legitimacy of America’s unilateral action.
10. In international society, minimum level of stable order is necessary to pursue ‘’Just’’ even if it is unreasonable.
11. Then, why didn’t economic sanctions produce pursued result or concessions? Asymmetrical war! For the economic weapons to work, military background is fundamental show senders’ will and capability. In this case, thanks to the location of North Korea, credibility of military background is diluted. In addition, nuclear issue is intricate and considered to be a double-standard although the norm of the non-proliferation is getting more and more matured.
12. Why is comprehensive economic sanctions impossible? In the past, complete economic sanctions was common. However, recent growing legitimacy of human rights norms has led to the prohibition of exhaustive economic sanctions.
13. Economic teeth works only when the target country feels the sense of political isolation. Economic sanctions is a political tool despite of its name. Abolition of the apartheid of South Africa is a product not by the economic damage it incurred but by the political sense of isolation. In fact, even with the international siege, South Africa was in a condition to be able to develop economically by itself, America’s participation in the sanctions regime triggered the change in apartheid policy.
14. However, if the economic sanctions were to function, both Russia and China would be required to be included in the sanctions regime and afflict the political isolation on North Korea. Even so, Beijing does not want the collapse of North Korea and the devastation of its neighbor cannot be overlooked from the humanitarian standpoint. Russia does not seem to be so interested in North Korea, so Russia can always be a defector of the sanctions regime.
15. North Korea invested almost all the resources it has in the development of nuclear weapons. Therefore, it is unlikely that the North would voluntarily stop the project abandon the returns from the development.
16. Mere symbolic participation by Russia and China in the regime does matter indeed in the sense of casing political isolation.
17. Wouldn’t America’s concession become notorious precedents to Iran and Syria? - No, Washington can attack these countries considering no crucial allies surrounding these two countries.
18. North threat does not only come from its nuclear weapons but also from its conventional weapons against Soul.
19. Great Powers cooperation on this issue is feasible even with the deliberate and unfavorable policies of the U.S. causing the scattered international order. In foreign policy, cooperation or confrontation issue by issue is a commonplace practice.
20. Kim is certainly eager to reap economic gains. In the past, North Korea froze the development in exchange for economic aid, however, in vain because America did not keep the promise.
21. Historically, USSR and Russia have seen North Korea as a mere parameter in relation to the U.S.
22. Once Kim is in a negotiation table, coalition of great powers must guarantee explicitly the economic aid and regime’s maintenance. Nuclear-free zone of North East Asia is preferable. (China would be convinced. Beijing would not want political enemies with nuclear weapons in its proximity.)
23. Kim regime employs ‘’ Rally around the flag’’ policy to boost people’s morale and divert domestic dissatisfaction.
24. For internationally-isolated small sates, nuclear card is the only and the most effective policy enabling direct negotiations with the U.S., which means international recognition.